Oil Headed to Florida Keys

Satellite imagery yesterday from NASA's MODIS satellite confirms that a substantial tongue of oil has moved from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and entered the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current. The Loop Current is an ocean current that flows into the Gulf then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and then along the west side of the western Bahamas.

Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. Once oil gets into the Loop Current, the 1 - 2 mph speed of the current should allow the oil to travel the 500 miles to the Florida Keys in 10 - 20 days. Portions of the Loop Current flow at speed up to 4 mph, so the transport could be just 4 - 5 days depending on weather conditions.

And we now have that tropical system that looks like it may enter the Gulf by next week; that should be interesting to watch.

Likely areas of impact

The greatest risk of land impacts by surface oil caught in the Loop Current is along the ocean side of the Florida Keys, and along the coast of Southeast Florida.

Eddies can, however, break away from the Gulf Stream and could also likely bring oil to northwest Cuba, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast as far north as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, though at lesser concentrations.

There is a "forbidden zone" off the southwest Florida coast where the shape of the coast, bottom configuration, and prevailing winds all act to create upwelling and surface currents that tend to take water away from the coast.

Southwest Florida cannot rest entirely, though--the "forbidden zone" is only true for surface waters, and there is onshore flow below the surface. The oil spill is said to involve underwater oil as well as on surface waters.

If your boat is in these high risk areas, I recommend you begin to make plans to move her or haul her from the water. We have a Monk Roughwater trawler in the impact area of Vero Beach but expect to close on her sale in the next week or so and will get her moved out immediately.

Stayed tune for more information as I learn it.

Sources:
NOAA
Dr. Jeff masters
NASA
University of Wisconsin